LegCo Panel on Housing
Subcommittee on Long Term Housing Strategy Review
Meeting on 29 October 1996
Observations requiring response by the Administration

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Study on Housing Demand Model

1. With reference to Column I in Table I of the report on housing need components for which assumptions have been made without statistical support, to advise if it is possible to reduce the number of such assumptions made as these are too unscientific.

2. The assumption that only 17% of legal immigrants from China have housing needs upon arrival in Hong Kong is unrealistic and the need has been under-estimated. To advise the basis for the assumption.

3. To explain how the Splitting Ratio of 25% public rental housing: 25% home ownership: 50% private housing for new household formation such as first marriages, divorces, new immigrants has been arrived at.

4. To elaborate on the rationale for including an Accommodation Generation Rate in arriving at the housing demand.

5. To provide statistical support on how the safety margin of 5% has been arrived at.

Study on Housing Demand

6. To explain how the pledge for reducing the average waiting time from seven years to under five years by the year 2001 can be realistically achieved.

7. To provide a projection on housing need and housing demand, and the expected number of applicants on the General Waiting List, for periods of five years (i.e. 2001, 2006 and 2011) when the population will reach 8.1 million by 2011.

8. To advise the number of new applicants on the General Waiting List who are legal immigrants from China or which are families with these immigrants.

9. To provide data on an additional element of uncommitted components such as rooftop dwellers and residents affected by urban renewal which would have impact on future housing demand.

Legislative Counsil Secretariat
31 October 1996

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Follow-up actions to be taken by the Research and Library Services Division of the LegCo Secretariat

Study on Housing Demand Model

1. To provide additional information on the impact of legal immigrants from China on housing demand on the basis of findings of the survey on disparity in wealth conducted by the Hong Kong Council of Social Services and a similar survey conducted by the Home Affairs Branch.

Study on Housing Demand

2. To produce a more legible version of Figure 1 on page 4 of the report.

3. With reference to Table 3, to provide also the relative percentages of income limit to median monthly household income for the years 1992 to 1995.

4. To ascertain the number of new applicants on the General Waiting List who are legal immigrants from China or which are families with these immigrants.

5. To supplement an additional element of uncommitted components such as rooftop dwellers and residents affected by urban renewal which would have impact on future housing demand.

Others

6. To conduct two further studies on the subjects of "Land Supply" and "Lead Time for Construction of Flats".

Legislative Council Secretariat
31 October 1996

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