LC Paper No. CB(2) 2816/98-99
(These minutes have been
seen by the Administration)
Ref : CB2/H/5
House Committee of the Legislative Council
Minutes of the special meeting
held in the Legislative Council Chamber
at 9:00 am on Thursday, 6 May 1999
Members present :
Dr Hon LEONG Che-hung, JP (Chairman)
Dr Hon YEUNG Sum (Deputy Chairman)
Hon James TIEN Pei-chun, JP
Hon David CHU Yu-lin
Hon Cyd HO Sau-lan
Hon Albert HO Chun-yan
Hon Michael HO Mun-ka
Dr Hon Raymond HO Chung-tai, JP
Hon LEE Wing-tat
Hon LEE Cheuk-yan
Hon Martin LEE Chu-ming, SC, JP
Hon Eric LI Ka-cheung, JP
Hon LEE Kai-ming, JP
Hon Fred LI Wah-ming
Dr Hon LUI Ming-wah, JP
Hon NG Leung-sing
Hon Margaret NG Ngoi-yee
Hon Mrs Selina CHOW LIANG Shuk-yee, JP
Hon Ronald ARCULLI, JP
Hon MA Fung-kwok
Hon James TO Kun-sun
Hon CHEUNG Man-kwong
Hon Ambrose CHEUNG Wing-sum, JP
Hon HUI Cheung-ching
Hon Christine LOH Kung-wai
Hon CHAN Yuen-han
Hon CHAN Wing-chan
Hon CHAN Kam-lam
Hon Mrs Sophie LEUNG LAU Yau-fun, JP
Hon LEUNG Yiu-chung
Hon Gary CHENG Kai-nam
Hon SIN Chung-kai
Hon Andrew WONG Wang-fat, JP
Dr Hon Philip WONG Yu-hong
Hon WONG Yung-kan
Hon Howard YOUNG, JP
Hon YEUNG Yiu-chung
Hon LAU Kong-wah
Hon Ambrose LAU Hon-chuen, JP
Hon Emily LAU Wai-hing, JP
Hon CHOY So-yuk
Hon Timothy FOK Tsun-ting, JP
Hon TAM Yiu-chung, JP
Dr Hon TANG Siu-tong, JP
Members absent :
Hon Kenneth TING Woo-shou, JP
Hon HO Sai-chu, JP
Hon Edward HO Sing-tin, JP
Dr Hon David LI Kwok-po, JP
Prof Hon NG Ching-fai
Hon CHAN Kwok-keung
Hon Bernard CHAN
Hon Jasper TSANG Yok-sing, JP
Hon LAU Chin-shek, JP
Hon LAU Wong-fat, GBS, JP
Hon Mrs Miriam LAU Kin-yee, JP
Hon Andrew CHENG Kar-foo
Hon SZETO Wah
Hon LAW Chi-kwong, JP
Hon FUNG Chi-kin
Public Officers attending :
- Mr Michael SUEN
- Acting Chief Secretary for Administration
- Mrs Katherine
- FOK Secretary for Health and Welfare
- Mrs Regina IP
- Secretary for Security
- Mr Gordon SIU
- Secretary for Planning, Environment and Lands
- Mr Dominic WONG
- Secretary for Housing
- Mr Joseph WONG
- Secretary for Education and Manpower
- Mr Fred HO
- Commissioner for Census & Statistics
- Mr Ambrose LEE
- Director of Immigration
- Mr K Y TANG
- Government Economist
Clerk in attendance :
- Mrs Justina LAM
- Clerk to the House Committee
Staff in attendance :
- Mr Jimmy MA, JP
- Legal Adviser
- Mr LAW Wing-lok
- Chief Assistant Secretary (2)5
- Miss Mary SO
- Senior Assistant Secretary (2)8
Introduction
1 The Chairman welcomed representatives of the Administration to the
special meeting which was arranged at the request of the Administration.
He said that the purpose of the special meeting was for the Administration
to brief members on its assessment of the implications on social and economic
services with the arrivals from the Mainland of people who had been given
the right of abode (ROA) in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
(HKSAR) by the ruling of the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) delivered on 29
January 1999. He further said that two papers prepared by the Administration
entitled "The Judgment of the Court of Final Appeal on Right of Abode Issue
- Assessment of Service Implications" and "Estimates of the number of Mainlanders
with Right of Abode in Hong Kong" were tabled for members' information.
Administration's assessment of service implications
2. The Acting Chief Secretary for Administration (Ag CS) said that as
a result of the CFA judgment, the number of persons eligible for ROA in
the HKSAR had increased tremendously. According to the preliminary
findings of the mid-term survey conducted by the Census and Statistics
Department (C&SD), the number of persons in the Mainland eligible for
ROA in Hong Kong arising from the CFA judgment was estimated to reach 1
675 000. Of them, 692 000 were eligible persons of the first generation,
while 983 000 were eligible persons of the second generation. Ag
CS stressed that although the survey had been conducted by C&SD in
an objective and professional manner, there were invariably a number of
factors which would cause over-estimation or under-estimation of the total
number of eligible persons. Nevertheless, the Administration considered
that the figure of 1 675 000 derived from C&SD's survey was the best
reference available for making assessment at this stage.
3. Ag CS also said that based on the findings of the survey, the relevant
policy bureaux had over the past week conducted a preliminary assessment
of the impact of the arrival of eligible persons on infrastructure, social
services and employment. The assessment covered housing, education,
medical services, social welfare, employment situation, employment services,
vocational training and re-training, transport and environment. The
Administration's assessment was based on the following assumptions -
- The CFA had ruled that the HKSAR Government must process applications
for C of E within a reasonable period of time, and that the process must
not be delayed by administrative measures. For this reason, the Administration
considered it reasonable to assume that the first generation of new arrivals
would be absorbed in three years' time, and that the two generations, first
and second, be absorbed within ten years.
- According to the survey conducted by C&SD, 80% of those
interviewed thought that their children in the Mainland would choose to
settle in Hong Kong. However, as the experience of the Immigration
Department was that the majority of Mainland residents with ROA would choose
to come to Hong Kong, the Government should assess the demand for various
services and facilities on the assumption that all eligible persons would
exercise such a right.
- The assessment made had excluded Mainland residents who were already
eligible for ROA in Hong Kong before the CFA judgment as the Administration
had already planned the facilities and services required for these new
arrivals.
4. Ag CS informed Members that in order to meet the needs of the eligible
persons of the first and second generations in the provision of facilities
and services, the taxpayers in Hong Kong would have to shoulder a capital
expenditure of $710 billion in ten years, while the annual recurrent expenditure
of various services would reach $33 billion by the tenth year. Ag
CS pointed out that, for comparison, the total capital expenditure of the
Government for 1998-99 was $55 billion and the recurrent expenditure was
$166.9 billion. He further said that the assessment of service provisions
was not comprehensive. The increase in the demand arising from increased
population for the facilities and services currently enjoyed by Hong Kong
people and the service commitments made by the Government - such as municipal,
recreational, sports and arts facilities, as well as public services ranging
from district affairs to security - had not been taken into account.
5. Ag CS said that apart from this huge financial burden, the bigger
problem laid in the large demand for land. It was estimated that
1 277 hectares of land would be required to meet the basic needs of the
additional population alone, mostly for public housing, but other infrastructure
such as road and community facilities were equally essential for modern
city life. The Planning, Environment and Lands Bureau had estimated
that a total 6 000 hectares of land would be needed to accommodate the
1 675 000 additional population, based on the current planning criteria
in Hong Kong. Ag CS pointed out that in the last decade, the Government
was only able to provide about 200 hectares of land on average each year.
Besides, land development of a large scale would inevitably give rise to
numerous planning and environmental problems. This was the hard reality
that the people and the Government would have to face together.
6. Referring to the press reports about the accuracy of the Government's
statistics, Ag CS reiterated that despite technical constraints, the statistics
formed an adequate basis for the Administration's assessment of the service
implications. Even if the assessment results were to be considerably
discounted, it was still doubtful whether the Administration had the capacity
to cope. He added that the purpose of the meeting was not to find
a solution but to brief members on the Administration's assessment of the
needs for education, employment, medical services, social welfare, environment
and housing arising from the admission of 1 675 000 eligible persons.
Education
7. Secretary for Education and Manpower (SEM) said that according to
the age profile provided by C&SD, 170 000 eligible children of the
first generation who would come in the first three years, and a further
400 000 eligible children of the second generation who would come in years
8 to 10, were aged below 20 and would require schooling. This represented
over 60% of the current student population. A total of 242 schools
(136 primary and 104 secondary) would need to be built within ten years,
and a further 24 secondary schools were required to be completed in years
11 and 12 to meet the demand of eligible children who gradually grew up
and needed additional secondary school places. Given the scarce land
resources, finding adequate land (about 158 hectares) for the building
of 266 schools over a period of 12 years was a big problem.
8. SEM pointed out that as it was virtually impossible to build the
large number of schools within a three-year period, a series of contingency
measures would need to be adopted which would affect the delivery of quality
education for at least the first three years. These measures included
changing the current practice of allocating primary school places from
a district to a territorial basis; expanding the class size of secondary
schools from 40 to 45 per class; abandoning the plan to achieve the target
of 60% of primary school children receiving whole-day schooling by 2002/03.
Other more drastic measures, such as converting existing whole-day primary
schools to bi-sessional operation and/or further increasing the class size
for primary schools, might also need to be adopted. SEM further pointed
out that about 15 300 teachers would be required in 12 years' time against
the current training capacity of 1 620 pre-service and 1 100 in-service
training places a year. This would mean that a large number of teachers
would be untrained unless the teacher-training capacity was increased tremendously.
He added that the future demand for university places of these children
had not been taken into account in the assessment.
Employment services, provision of vocational training and retraining
9. SEM said that with an increase of 876 500 new arrivals to the total
labour force, an additional 20 Employment and Guidance Centres for New
Arrivals and two Local Employment Service Centres needed to be set up by
phases over the next 10 years, i.e. an increase by 200% in 10 years time.
10. SEM further said that about 60% of the new arrivals of working age
would require some vocational training. The Vocational Training Council
(VTC) estimated that some 123 000 training places would be required over
the next 10 years and that two new VTC colleges had to be built to provide
technician training. Also, about 876 000 retraining places would
need to be provided as 90% of the new arrivals of working age were expected
to require retraining.
Unemployment and impact on the economy
11. The Government Economist (GE) said that some 875 000 new arrivals
(356,000 of the first generation and 519 000 of the second generation),
which was about one-quarter of the current total workforce in Hong Kong,
would be entering the labour market over the next 10 years. With
the inflow of the first generation of eligible persons, the unemployment
rate would start to surge in 2000, and would increase by around 10% by
the end of 2002 over and above the prevailing rate without this first wave
of inflow. The inflow of the second generation would result in the
unemployment rate rising by around 12% by the end of 2009 over the rate
that would prevail without this second wave of inflow.
12. GE further said that the substantial increase in labour supply at
the lower end of the occupational hierarchy would have the effect of reducing
wage cost to employers. It would also have the effect of restraining
pay to the local workers involved, thus lowering the per capita GDP for
the entire community. Along with the need to allocate a massive amount
of resources for the provision of services to cater for the 1 675 000 new
arrivals, the investment resources available for furthering the growth
of the economy would be correspondingly constrained, thereby affecting
the further growth capacity of the economy, and in turn its ability to
generate sufficient resources for meeting this and other social needs.
Medical and Health Care
13. Secretary for Health and Welfare (SHW) informed members that 44
hectares of land would need to be made available for building 11 new hospitals
over the next 10 years. The total capital expenditure for this massive
building programme was estimated to be in the region of $26 billion, and
the total annually recurrent expenditure by the end of the tenth year would
be $8.3 billion. Given that the lead time (from planning to completion)
for building a hospital was about 5 years, the demand for medical services
from the first generation would have to be met by existing facilities before
new hospitals were available. This would inevitably have a serious
effect on the provision of medical services.
14. SHW further said that a number of General Outpatient clinics, Maternal
& Child Health Centres, Student Health Service Centres and Special
Assessment Centres would need to be provided. The total capital expenditure
requirement was estimated to be $1.2 billion, and the total annually recurrent
expenditure by the end of the tenth year would be $0.48 billion.
Until the new facilities were built, the Department of Health would have
to handle the additional caseload by providing additional General Outpatient
Clinic sessions and by extending the opening hours of Health Centres.
This would result in longer queues and more "turn-aways".
Social Welfare
15. SHW said that according to Social Welfare Department's records,
about 13%-14% of the new arrivals from the Mainland were on Comprehensive
Social Security Assistance (CSSA). On this basis, the additional
yearly CSSA expenditure by the end of the tenth year was assessed to be
$8.4 billion. The large population inflow arising from the CFA ruling
would also result in an increase in demand for welfare services ranging
from family and child care services to youth programme and elderly and
rehabilitation services, which would require capital expenditure totaling
$2.62 billion over the next 10 years, and annually recurrent expenditure
of $1.44 billion by the end of the tenth year.
Land and Infrastructure
16. Secretary for Planning, Environment and Lands (SPEL) said that according
to the Territorial Development Strategy Review (TDSR) published in February
1998, the Administration estimated that it might need to cope with a population
of 8 100 000 by 2011. To accommodate this level of population within
the next 12 years, the Administration had planned 10 Strategic Growth Areas
(SGAs) in the New Territories (NT) and in urban areas through reclamation,
forming a total of 5,730 hectares of land. To accommodate a further
population of 1 675 000 within the same period as a result of the CFA ruling,
an extra 6 000 hectares of land would be needed. This figure represented
only the minimum land required to provide the basic accommodation, education
and GIC facilities, etc. There were other needs, such as commercial
and industrial land to provide the necessary jobs, and other facilities
planned on a territory-wide basis. He pointed out that in order to
provide the additional land necessary, the Administration would have to
explore new SGAs (mainly in Northwest NT and Northeast NT) and, where possible,
further increase the density of population in existing built-up areas,
and/or undertake reclamation projects outside the central harbour (such
as in Shum Tseng, Tuen Mun or Tolo Harbour).
17. SPEL further said that the land required to accommodate an additional
1,670,000 population would be roughly equivalent to the size of three Tseng
Kwan O new town. Past experience indicated that to develop a new
town on the same scale as Tseung Kwan O, it would take over 15 years from
planning, land formation to the completion of housing blocks for the first
population in-take. The cost of building new population centres the
size of three Tseung Kwan O new town would be in the region of $415 billion.
This covered the basic cost of land formation and local infrastructural
facilities, but excluded costs of the construction of housing and major
transport infrastructure such as trunk roads or railway lines.
Environment
18. SPEL said that Hong Kong's current population produced some 8 000
tonnes of municipal solid waste per day. The additional population
would increase daily production by 2 000 tonnes a day. The existing
three landfills would all be full before 2011 and new landfill sites would
have to be found quickly. In addition to solid waste, about 2.1 million
cu.m. of sewerage were produced per day. The additional population
would add 0.5 million cu.m. per day. The Administration would not
only have to expand existing and planned treatment facilities, but also
to build new ones.
Housing
19. Secretary for Housing (S for H) said that on the basis of the mid-term
survey findings released by C&SD, it was estimated that a total of
some 173 300 flats would be needed to meet the new housing demand generated
by the arrival of the first generation of eligible persons in the first
three years. This represented the construction of 13 large housing
estates (over 4000 flats per estate) each year for three years. Demand
for a further 80 000 flats would be generated from 2003 to 2006, making
a total additional demand of 253 000 over the first seven years. Demand
for another 280 400 flats would be created from 2007 to 2009. The
total number of flats required to meet the housing need of both the first
and second generations of eligible persons arriving from 2000 to 2009 would
be 533 700 flats (384 000 public and 149 400 private). This worked
out to about 53 400 flats per year, representing an increase of 94% over
the current annual production rate.
20. S for H added that the admission of eligible persons on this scale
would render key housing policy targets unachievable. It would result
in overcrowding in both public and private housing, as well as an increase
in the number of households living in squatter areas, cubicles and rooftops.
Questions raised by Members
21. The Chairman thanked the Administration's representatives for their
assessment of the service implications and invited questions from members.
22. Mr CHAN Wing-chan asked whether the Administration had drawn up
any plans to tackle the impact of the arrival of 1 675 000 eligible persons
on the provision of services. Ag CS responded that the Administration
had made a preliminary assessment of the implications on service provisions
and that the drawing up of plans to deal with the problems would be the
next step.
23. In response to Dr Philip WONG's enquiry about the basis for the
Administration's adoption of the three-year timeframe for admitting the
first generation of 692 000 eligible persons, Ag CS said that the Government
had to admit the eligible persons within a reasonable time in compliance
with the CFA judgment. What constituted a reasonable timeframe should be
considered from the point of view of the eligible persons. For instance,
the lack of manpower in the Immigration Department in processing C of E
applications could not be a valid reason for delaying the entry of these
persons. He further said that the public generally considered a three-year
period as reasonable.
24. Mr LEE Wing-tat asked whether the Administration intended to abolish
the seven-year residency requirement for public housing applicants, as
S for H had said that some 253 300 flats would need to be constructed within
the next seven years to cater for the intake of eligible persons.
25. S for H responded that the Administration had not contemplated changing
the seven-year residency rule for public housing applicants. He reiterated
that the assessment of the implications on the provision of housing was
made on the basis that 1 675 000 eligable persons would enter Hong Kong
within the next ten years. This additional demand would be impossible
to meet in the foreseeable future, not because of the seven years residence
rule, but because of the lead-time needed to build additional public housing
on the scale required. The result would be overcrowding in the public
and private sectors, and an inability to achieve our key housing policy
targets. Ag CS added that the new arrivals would have housing needs
irrespective of whether they were eligible for public housing.
26. Mr CHEUNG Man-kwong said that the Administration should consider
other options under existing education provision, such as abandoning the
target of 60% of primary schools children receiving whole-day schooling
by 2002/2003 before deciding on building more primary schools to meet the
demand.
27. SEM responded that the assessment of the implications on the provision
of education service had to be made on the basis of existing policies.
The Administration could not unilaterally abandon the policy of whole-day
schooling in primary schools without first consulting the parties concerned,
and it was still the Administration's aim to achieve the target of 100%
of primary school children receiving whole-day schooling by 2007/2008.
SEM further said that as it was virtually impossible to build the large
number of schools required to meet the demand of the first generation of
eligible persons under the age of 20 within a three-year period, other
contingency measures such as changing the practice of allocating primary
school places from a district to a territorial basis, and expanding the
class size for secondary schools from 40 to 45 would have to be adopted.
This would inevitably affect the delivery of quality education.
28. Mr LAU Kong-wah asked whether the huge costs involved in the provision
of services would result in deficit budgets in the next ten years.
Deputy Secretary for the Treasury replied that in view of the current economic
downturn which had brought about a deficit budget in the short term, coupled
with the additional financial demand arising from the intake of eligible
persons, it was envisaged that a return to balanced budgets over the medium
term could not be realized. She pointed out that on the basis of
the assessment of financial implications in providing the services and
assuming a forecast trend growth rate of 3.5%, it was estimated that the
rate of growth in government spending would exceed that of the economy
as a whole by 70% by 2009/2010. As regards public expenditure as
a percentage of GDP, the 21.1% figure for 1999/2000 would be likely to
increase to about 26% by 2009/2010. She added that in order to redress
such imbalance and to comply with Article 107 of the Basic Law, the Administration
would need to consider the options of increasing government revenue and
imposing swingeing cuts in government expenditure.
29. Mr Martin LEE remarked that the ROA issue had not suddenly emerged
from nowhere and asked why the Administration had not drawn up any plans
to deal with the implications of the ROA issue since 1984 when the Sino/British
Joint Declaration was signed.
30. Ag CS replied that there were people who held the view that the
ROA issue had emerged from nowhere. It was a well-known fact that
there were different interpretations of Article 24 of the Basic Law in
the community, even after the delivery of the CFA judgment. This was mainly
attributable to the fact that Article 24 was intentionally written in a
loose manner to enable the Government to make laws to set out the detailed
implementation provisions later on. He pointed out that prior to
the reunification, the Sino/British Joint Liaison Group had reached a consensus
on the ROA issue. The Preparatory Committee (PC) made reference to
the consensus for forming their views on how Article 24 should be interpreted.
Although the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC)
accepted the PC's Opinions on Article 24 by endorsing the report on the
work of the PC submitted by its Chairman, in which the PC's Opinions were
mentioned, the CFA did not consider such Opinions could assist in the construction
of the meaning of Article 24 on the grounds that these Opinions were given
after the Basic Law was promulgated. He added that in the light of
the CFA judgment, the Administration had assessed the impact on service
provisions on the basis that all the 1 675 000 eligible persons would exercise
their ROA to come to Hong Kong.
31. Mr Fred LI asked whether the one-year residency rule for new arrivals
to become eligible for CSSA had been taken into account in arriving at
the estimate that the additional yearly expenditure for social security
would be $3.5 billion.
32. SHW responded that a number of the new arrivals had parents in Hong
Kong who were Hong Kong permanent residents and already in receipt of CSSA.
These parents could apply for CSSA in respect of their Mainland children
immediately upon their arrival in Hong Kong. She further pointed
out that the estimate of $3.5 billion represented the annually recurrent
expenditure in social security by the end of the seventh year. The
estimate was worked out according to Social Welfare Department's records
that about 14% of the new arrivals were on CSSA.
33. Mr CHENG Kai-nam asked whether the Administration's assessment of
service implications served to indicate that it was beyond the Government's
capability to absorb even a significantly smaller number than the estimate
of 1 675 000 eligible persons.
34. Ag CS said that some people might have different assumptions on
the number of eligible Mainland residents who would come to settle in Hong
Kong. He pointed out that different assumptions would give rise to
different assessment of implications on the provision of services, and
added that the Administration's assessment of service implications had
been worked out based on assumptions it considered to be realistic.
35. Mr James TIEN said that according to the Administration's assessment,
876,000 new arrivals would be added to the labour force, but only 125 000
basic skills/pre-employment training places would be provided over the
next 10 years. He asked whether the Administration had assumed that
the remaining 750 000 new arrivals were skilled workers or whether the
Administration would rely on the private sector to provide the necessary
vocational training.
36. SEM replied that vocational training consisted of two parts: basic
skills/pre-employment training and retraining. Some 123 000 basic
skills/pre-employment training places and 823 000 retraining places would
be provided over the next 10 years. The Administration would assess
whether it would be necessary to set aside some of the retraining places
for basic skills/pre-employment training in the light of actual demand.
He pointed out that the question of whether the new arrivals after training
or retraining would be able to secure employment would depend on whether
a sufficient number of new jobs would be created which, in turn, would
be dependent upon the state of the economy.
37. Mr TIEN further asked whether the Administration had assessed how
many of the 876 000 eligible persons of working age were without any job
skills. SEM replied that the Administration had no knowledge of the
job skills of the 876 000 eligible persons who would be added to the labour
force. SEM added that assuming that these persons had reached
secondary school level, about 90% of them were expected to require retraining.
38. Miss CHAN Yuen-han said that a full-scale household survey should
be conducted on the total population in Hong Kong in order to collect accurate
data on the number of Mainlanders with ROA in Hong Kong.
39. Commissioner for Census and Statistics (C for C&S) said that
half of the 20 000 samples in the general household survey had been covered
as at mid-April. He explained that the sample size was not small
by international standards and samples already covered formed a separate
and scientific random sample by itself and could be used to draw inference
on the overall situation. He pointed out that 10 000 - 20 000 specially
trained enumerators would be required to conduct a full-scale survey, and
that it would take time to train such a large number of skilled enumerators.
40. Miss CHAN Yuen-han asked why the "20-49" age group in the Annex
to the paper on "Estimates of the number of Mainlanders with right of abode
in Hong Kong" covered a much wider age group than the others given in the
Annex. C for C&S explained that the "20-49" age group covered
those of working age. He further explained that the "6-11" and "12-19"
age groups covered children of primary school age and secondary school
age respectively, while the "50-59" and "60+" age groups covered elderly
persons.
41. Mr LEE Cheuk-yan expressed reservation on the accuracy of figures
on "children born out of registered marriage" obtained under the "randomized
response technique (RRT)" in respect of half of the 9 200 households already
covered up to mid-April.
42. C for C&S said that enumerators had encountered difficulties
in using the "direct questioning method (DQM)" in collecting data on the
question concerning "children born out of registered marriage". The
enumerators' feedback was that the DQM was a complete failure, as respondents
generally felt embarrassed or adopted a perfunctory attitude when being
asked the question. He was therefore of the view that the number
of "children born out of registered marriage" established via the DQM could
not be relied on.
43. Referring to the table in paragraph 3 of the paper mentioned by
Miss CHAN Yuen-han earlier, Mr LEE asked why the number of "children born
out of registered marriage" was higher than the number of "children born
within registered marriage".
44. C for C&S replied that the figure of 172 000 given in the table
did not include the 102 000 persons with ROA prior to the CFA judgment.
Also, the number of this category of children had decreased over the years
because some had already arrived under the One-way Permit (OWP) system.
He added that the results from the survey conducted from November 1995
to January 1996 showed that there were 320 000 children born in the Mainland
and were still residing there. This number did not include "children
born out of registered marriage". A considerable number of the 320
000 persons had already arrived under the OWP system over the last three
years, but this was offset to a certain extent by new-borns added to this
category. This figure corresponded broadly to the figure of 274 000
of first generation of "children born within registered marriage" shown
in the table. Regarding the figure of 520 000 "children born out
of registered marriage", he explained that not all of them had been born
to "mistresses" or "extra-marital relationship". A considerable number
of them were born to "de facto marriage" in the Mainland. He further
said that up to the early 1990s, a large number of persons who had children
did not go through any formal marriage registration in the Mainland.
45. Mr LEE further asked C for C&S to provide Members with a copy
of the report covering the analysis of the respondents' answers to the
question relating to "children born out of registered marriage" under the
RRT. C for C&S explained that the RRT was a very sophisticated
technique adopted by the statistical profession in tackling issues with
a high degree of sensitivity in a survey. Individual Members wishing to
know more about the RRT could approach him and he would be happy to explain
the RRT to them in detail.
46. The Chairman said that there were more than ten members who had
yet to ask questions but he had to call the meeting to a close. He
suggested that another meeting be convened on Saturday, 8 May 1999 to continue
the discussion.
47. The Chairman thanked the Administration's representatives for attending
the meeting.
48. The meeting ended at 10:45 am.
Legislative Council Secretariat
14 September 1999